Pemodelan Peramalan Beban pada System Sulselrabar Menggunakan Tipe-2 Logika Fuzzy

Muhammad Ruswandi Djalal; Imam Robandi

doi:10.31963/elekterika.v6i2.3751

Pemodelan Peramalan Beban pada System Sulselrabar Menggunakan Tipe-2 Logika Fuzzy

Muhammad Ruswandi Djalal, Imam Robandi

Abstract

Penelitian ini mengusulkan pendekatan pemodelan untuk peramalan beban jangka pendek 24 jam berdasarkan logika fuzzy tipe-2. Dalam penelitian ini didapatkan suatu pendekatan dalam merancang model peramalan beban, dimana sebelumnya masih menggunakan logika fuzzy konvensional. Implementasi peramalan beban pada penelitian ini dilakukan pada sistem kelistrikan 150 kV Sulselrabar. Sistem kelistrikan Sulselrabar dalam perkembangannya mengalami perkembangan yang pesat, oleh karena itu diperlukan suatu penelitian yang dapat meningkatkan performansi sistem tersebut, salah satunya adalah studi peramalan beban jangka pendek. Sebagai data input digunakan data beban dari tahun 2010 sampai dengan tahun 2016 pada hari yang sama yaitu tanggal 8 Januari. Untuk melihat keakuratan hasil, dilakukan dua pendekatan, yaitu logika fuzzy tipe-1 yang dimodelkan menggunakan Simulink dan logika fuzzy tipe-2 dengan menggunakan m-file Matlab. Dari hasil analisis diperoleh Mean Percentage Error (MAPE) paling kecil dengan menggunakan metode Fuzzy Logic Type-2, dibandingkan dengan metode Fuzzy Logic Type-1. Dimana, MAPE untuk metode fuzzy logic tipe-1 adalah 2.1%, dan dengan menggunakan metode logika fuzzy tipe-2, MAPE adalah 1.7%.

Keywords

Beban; Type-2 Fuzzy Logic; Fuzzy Rule; Error;

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References

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.31963/elekterika.v6i2.3751

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